Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Yongdong Chemistry Industry Co., Ltd. (002753.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.76 - $41.26$38.67
Multi-Stage$6.32 - $6.91$6.61
Blended Fair Value$22.64
Current Price$6.93
Upside226.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.52%18.04%0.180.140.230.100.060.240.110.040.050.01
YoY Growth--26.80%-40.54%130.73%70.65%-74.64%119.24%178.40%-18.86%224.12%-56.53%
Dividend Yield--2.73%2.15%2.92%1.17%0.78%3.46%0.92%0.30%0.37%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.639.775.86
Cash Retained (M)7.797.797.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.63-9.77-5.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.84-1.981.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)376.78376.78376.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.76$38.67$41.26
Upside / Downside156.24%457.96%495.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.1783.2588.6694.42100.56107.10110.31
Payout Ratio90.03%90.02%90.02%90.01%90.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.3774.9479.8184.9990.5196.39102.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69.7270.3871.04
Year 2 PV (M)69.0770.3871.71
Year 3 PV (M)68.4270.3972.39
Year 4 PV (M)67.7970.3973.07
Year 5 PV (M)67.1570.4073.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,039.262,137.762,240.03
Equity Value (M)2,381.422,489.702,602.01
Shares Outstanding (M)376.78376.78376.78
Fair Value$6.32$6.61$6.91
Upside / Downside-8.80%-4.65%-0.35%

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