Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guosheng Securities Inc (002670.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.77 - $5.50$3.84
Multi-Stage$4.89 - $5.37$5.12
Blended Fair Value$4.48
Current Price$24.34
Upside-81.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.90%9.08%0.090.080.100.130.170.190.190.110.000.05
YoY Growth--15.77%-26.20%-20.93%-20.07%-12.39%-1.74%74.85%2,324.47%-91.48%42.08%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.82%1.20%1.46%1.62%1.95%1.29%0.84%0.03%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)190.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2740.7924.48
Cash Retained (M)190.75190.75190.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.27-40.79-24.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.48149.96166.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,934.451,934.451,934.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Fair Value$2.77$3.84$5.50
Upside / Downside-88.62%-84.23%-77.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.35332.79339.36346.05352.89359.85370.65
Payout Ratio41.55%51.24%60.93%70.62%80.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135.60170.52206.77244.38283.40323.87342.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Year 1 PV (M)159.45161.03162.61
Year 2 PV (M)180.79184.39188.02
Year 3 PV (M)199.80205.80211.91
Year 4 PV (M)216.66225.37234.34
Year 5 PV (M)231.51243.21255.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,464.458,891.989,336.60
Equity Value (M)9,452.669,911.7710,388.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,934.451,934.451,934.45
Fair Value$4.89$5.12$5.37
Upside / Downside-79.92%-78.95%-77.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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