Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangdong Delian Group Co., Ltd. (002666.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.00 - $1.67$1.29
Multi-Stage$1.16 - $1.27$1.21
Blended Fair Value$1.25
Current Price$5.33
Upside-76.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.43%4.20%0.080.030.010.090.040.230.040.040.050.05
YoY Growth--148.60%131.26%-84.37%167.24%-84.96%465.96%0.01%-22.96%1.67%-5.71%
Dividend Yield--1.81%0.74%0.29%1.87%0.75%4.37%0.81%0.55%0.68%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.088.805.28
Cash Retained (M)57.6157.6157.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.08-8.80-5.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.5348.8152.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)855.63855.63855.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$1.00$1.29$1.67
Upside / Downside-81.30%-75.76%-68.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.4172.6674.9977.4079.8882.4484.91
Payout Ratio18.17%32.54%46.90%61.27%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.7923.6435.1747.4260.4174.1978.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)21.4921.7021.91
Year 2 PV (M)29.0629.6330.21
Year 3 PV (M)35.6036.6637.74
Year 4 PV (M)41.2342.8744.55
Year 5 PV (M)46.0248.3250.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)817.92858.73901.15
Equity Value (M)991.331,037.901,086.25
Shares Outstanding (M)855.63855.63855.63
Fair Value$1.16$1.21$1.27
Upside / Downside-78.26%-77.24%-76.18%

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