Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuang-Chi Technologies Co., Ltd. (002625.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.58 - $66.66$62.47
Multi-Stage$48.63 - $53.36$50.95
Blended Fair Value$56.71
Current Price$50.20
Upside12.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS108.35%53.10%0.230.000.140.000.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%6,939.83%-60.70%-17.58%-8.51%3,203.99%-92.99%238.15%-74.87%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.00%0.82%0.01%0.02%0.08%0.05%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)720.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)500.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.1590.0954.06
Cash Retained (M)219.92219.92219.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.15-90.09-54.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.77129.83165.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,150.232,150.232,150.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate-2.30%-2.30%-2.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.58$62.47$66.66
Upside / Downside12.71%24.45%32.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)720.76767.61817.50870.64927.23987.501,017.13
Payout Ratio69.49%73.59%77.69%81.79%85.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)500.84564.88635.14712.14796.47888.75940.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.30%-2.30%-2.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)572.74578.17583.59
Year 2 PV (M)652.93665.36677.92
Year 3 PV (M)742.26763.57785.28
Year 4 PV (M)841.71874.08907.37
Year 5 PV (M)952.29998.291,046.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,810.65105,679.85110,735.39
Equity Value (M)104,572.58109,559.31114,735.60
Shares Outstanding (M)2,150.232,150.232,150.23
Fair Value$48.63$50.95$53.36
Upside / Downside-3.12%1.50%6.29%

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