Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Henan Tong-Da Cable Co., Ltd. (002560.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.86 - $32.33$30.30
Multi-Stage$4.75 - $5.18$4.96
Blended Fair Value$17.63
Current Price$7.32
Upside140.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.02%13.64%0.190.090.070.040.130.140.080.070.000.04
YoY Growth--123.14%23.03%72.20%-68.76%-9.30%78.27%14.78%0.00%-100.00%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%1.23%0.84%0.73%1.82%1.70%1.31%0.99%0.00%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0910.686.41
Cash Retained (M)1.071.071.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.09-10.68-6.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.02-9.61-5.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)525.71525.71525.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.86$30.30$32.33
Upside / Downside62.01%313.89%341.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.4691.0196.93103.23109.94117.09120.60
Payout Ratio98.75%97.00%95.25%93.50%91.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.3988.2892.3396.52100.87105.38111.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)82.0082.7783.55
Year 2 PV (M)79.6481.1682.69
Year 3 PV (M)77.3379.5581.81
Year 4 PV (M)75.0677.9580.92
Year 5 PV (M)72.8376.3580.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,108.322,210.152,315.88
Equity Value (M)2,495.182,607.932,724.86
Shares Outstanding (M)525.71525.71525.71
Fair Value$4.75$4.96$5.18
Upside / Downside-35.16%-32.23%-29.19%

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