Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu NanFang Precision Co.,Ltd. (002553.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.24 - $42.01$27.59
Multi-Stage$13.76 - $15.04$14.39
Blended Fair Value$20.99
Current Price$29.89
Upside-29.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%6.02%0.200.100.200.100.100.200.200.200.100.10
YoY Growth--99.61%-49.50%99.71%0.25%-50.76%1.54%0.00%100.00%0.00%-11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.81%1.62%1.09%0.87%4.31%2.90%2.50%0.66%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)309.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.9143.0725.84
Cash Retained (M)309.04309.04309.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.91-43.07-25.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)240.13265.97283.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)347.97347.97347.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.24$27.59$42.01
Upside / Downside-35.64%-7.68%40.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.53366.92390.77416.17443.22472.03486.19
Payout Ratio10.30%26.24%42.18%58.12%74.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.4996.28164.83241.88328.25424.83449.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.8387.6588.48
Year 2 PV (M)134.06136.61139.19
Year 3 PV (M)177.41182.51187.69
Year 4 PV (M)217.13225.48234.07
Year 5 PV (M)253.43265.67278.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,920.064,109.404,305.99
Equity Value (M)4,788.925,007.325,233.79
Shares Outstanding (M)347.97347.97347.97
Fair Value$13.76$14.39$15.04
Upside / Downside-53.96%-51.86%-49.68%

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