Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd (002545.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.11 - $148.04$106.93
Multi-Stage$18.12 - $19.83$18.96
Blended Fair Value$62.95
Current Price$14.00
Upside349.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.86%26.70%0.220.410.250.100.080.120.050.020.040.32
YoY Growth---45.62%64.00%150.00%25.00%-34.29%134.62%145.21%-43.80%-88.39%1,450.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%5.84%2.93%0.88%1.10%1.72%0.66%0.24%0.37%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)926.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)257.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)668.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.20115.7569.45
Cash Retained (M)668.19668.19668.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.20-115.75-69.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)482.99552.44598.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,243.961,243.961,243.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.11$106.93$148.04
Upside / Downside172.19%663.82%957.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)926.00986.191,050.291,118.561,191.271,268.701,306.76
Payout Ratio27.84%40.27%52.70%65.14%77.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)257.81397.16553.55728.59924.041,141.831,208.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)367.19370.67374.15
Year 2 PV (M)473.14482.15491.25
Year 3 PV (M)575.75592.27609.11
Year 4 PV (M)675.08701.04727.75
Year 5 PV (M)771.22808.47847.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,679.1120,629.6221,616.51
Equity Value (M)22,541.4923,584.2324,665.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,243.961,243.961,243.96
Fair Value$18.12$18.96$19.83
Upside / Downside29.43%35.42%41.63%

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