Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co., Ltd. (002539.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.40 - $140.18$131.37
Multi-Stage$22.71 - $24.86$23.76
Blended Fair Value$77.56
Current Price$10.40
Upside645.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.38%22.71%0.420.300.330.170.130.080.120.070.070.05
YoY Growth--41.49%-9.87%99.28%33.14%50.00%-28.57%75.00%0.00%22.05%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.49%3.88%2.99%1.24%1.37%1.60%1.99%1.19%0.65%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)850.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)355.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)495.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)170.05106.2863.77
Cash Retained (M)495.25495.25495.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-170.05-106.28-63.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)325.20388.96431.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.301,206.301,206.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.40$131.37$140.18
Upside / Downside711.58%1,163.13%1,247.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)850.25905.52964.381,027.061,093.821,164.921,199.87
Payout Ratio41.75%51.40%61.05%70.70%80.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)355.01465.46588.77726.14878.891,048.431,109.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)434.15438.26442.38
Year 2 PV (M)512.23521.98531.83
Year 3 PV (M)589.25606.16623.40
Year 4 PV (M)665.23690.81717.12
Year 5 PV (M)740.17775.92813.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,449.2425,630.1526,856.25
Equity Value (M)27,390.2628,663.2929,984.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.301,206.301,206.30
Fair Value$22.71$23.76$24.86
Upside / Downside118.33%128.47%139.00%

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