Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.83 - $203.54$190.74
Multi-Stage$30.98 - $33.90$32.41
Blended Fair Value$111.58
Current Price$11.59
Upside862.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.63%64.63%0.510.380.400.630.260.020.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth--32.02%-4.41%-36.19%144.52%1,081.13%-2.33%539.78%0.30%-0.06%0.40%
Dividend Yield--5.72%5.60%5.31%8.18%2.87%0.37%0.25%0.06%0.04%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,711.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,359.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,351.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)942.32588.95353.37
Cash Retained (M)2,351.672,351.672,351.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-942.32-588.95-353.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,409.351,762.721,998.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,603.684,603.684,603.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.83$190.74$203.54
Upside / Downside709.58%1,545.76%1,656.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,711.585,017.835,343.995,691.356,061.296,455.276,648.93
Payout Ratio50.09%58.07%66.05%74.04%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,359.912,913.863,529.844,213.594,971.325,809.756,150.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,712.352,738.062,763.77
Year 2 PV (M)3,058.513,116.773,175.57
Year 3 PV (M)3,398.483,496.043,595.44
Year 4 PV (M)3,732.343,875.874,023.51
Year 5 PV (M)4,060.164,256.274,459.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)125,655.31131,724.50138,025.99
Equity Value (M)142,617.14149,207.50156,044.16
Shares Outstanding (M)4,603.684,603.684,603.68
Fair Value$30.98$32.41$33.90
Upside / Downside167.29%179.64%192.45%

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