DDM Analysis: 002523.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.43 - $2.83	$1.98
Multi-Stage	$1.14 - $1.25	$1.20
Blended Fair Value	$1.59
Current Price	$3.88
Upside	-59.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-16.93%	7.97%	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-26.77%	-10.79%	4.49%	-26.26%	-21.42%	42.17%	76.86%	5.92%	21.40%	68.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.54%	0.83%	0.97%	1.04%	1.68%	1.99%	0.91%	0.44%	0.44%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	120.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	118.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	24.07	15.04	9.03
Cash Retained (M)	118.38	118.38	118.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-24.07	-15.04	-9.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	94.31	103.34	109.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,417.78	1,417.78	1,417.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.07	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.77%	9.77%	9.77%
Growth Rate	4.81%	5.81%	6.81%
Fair Value	$1.43	$1.98	$2.83
Upside / Downside	-63.06%	-48.92%	-27.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	120.34	127.33	134.72	142.55	150.83	159.60	164.38
Payout Ratio	1.62%	19.30%	36.97%	54.65%	72.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.95	24.57	49.81	77.90	109.09	143.64	152.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.77%	9.77%	9.77%
Growth Rate	4.81%	5.81%	6.81%
Year 1 PV (M)	22.17	22.39	22.60
Year 2 PV (M)	40.56	41.34	42.12
Year 3 PV (M)	57.24	58.89	60.58
Year 4 PV (M)	72.32	75.12	78.00
Year 5 PV (M)	85.93	90.11	94.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,342.77	1,408.06	1,475.87
Equity Value (M)	1,621.00	1,695.91	1,773.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,417.78	1,417.78	1,417.78
Fair Value	$1.14	$1.20	$1.25
Upside / Downside	-70.53%	-69.17%	-67.76%

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Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co., Ltd. (002523.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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