Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd (002461.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.33 - $84.12$37.20
Multi-Stage$12.78 - $14.00$13.38
Blended Fair Value$25.29
Current Price$10.01
Upside152.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.23%23.43%0.130.130.130.130.110.120.050.030.020.02
YoY Growth--0.64%-0.65%-0.19%19.95%-6.71%131.41%67.45%95.35%-8.08%5.66%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.62%1.37%1.69%1.05%1.68%0.74%0.58%0.23%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)947.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)563.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.56118.4871.09
Cash Retained (M)563.83563.83563.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.56-118.48-71.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)374.26445.35492.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,213.692,213.692,213.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate4.19%5.19%6.19%
Fair Value$17.33$37.20$84.12
Upside / Downside73.13%271.63%740.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)947.81997.041,048.831,103.311,160.611,220.901,257.52
Payout Ratio40.51%50.41%60.31%70.21%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.99502.61632.53774.58929.681,098.811,163.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate4.19%5.19%6.19%
Year 1 PV (M)468.53473.03477.53
Year 2 PV (M)549.66560.26570.97
Year 3 PV (M)627.47645.71664.30
Year 4 PV (M)702.05729.39757.53
Year 5 PV (M)773.51811.35850.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,168.3126,399.4727,678.36
Equity Value (M)28,289.5329,619.2130,999.32
Shares Outstanding (M)2,213.692,213.692,213.69
Fair Value$12.78$13.38$14.00
Upside / Downside27.67%33.67%39.89%

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