Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongnanhong Culture Group Co. Ltd. Class A (002445.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.29 - $0.41$0.35
Multi-Stage$0.42 - $0.46$0.44
Blended Fair Value$0.39
Current Price$2.62
Upside-84.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.33%-24.49%0.000.000.000.000.000.020.080.070.030.03
YoY Growth--629.74%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-82.48%-76.26%11.08%131.80%19.71%123.53%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.17%1.40%3.45%0.60%0.20%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8113.017.80
Cash Retained (M)102.47102.47102.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.81-13.01-7.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.6689.4694.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,406.052,406.052,406.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.29$0.35$0.41
Upside / Downside-89.05%-86.79%-84.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.05103.01101.98100.9699.9598.95101.92
Payout Ratio1.52%19.22%36.91%54.61%72.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.5819.7937.6455.1372.2789.0594.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.8418.0218.21
Year 2 PV (M)30.5831.2131.84
Year 3 PV (M)40.3741.6242.90
Year 4 PV (M)47.7049.6851.72
Year 5 PV (M)52.9955.7458.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)822.17864.99909.56
Equity Value (M)1,011.661,061.271,112.84
Shares Outstanding (M)2,406.052,406.052,406.05
Fair Value$0.42$0.44$0.46
Upside / Downside-83.95%-83.16%-82.35%

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