Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co., Ltd (002444.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.76 - $420.13$208.76
Multi-Stage$47.18 - $51.65$49.38
Blended Fair Value$129.07
Current Price$30.77
Upside319.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.14%22.70%0.660.400.060.040.040.170.020.090.090.17
YoY Growth--62.83%573.71%35.23%22.19%-78.61%799.67%-79.09%0.00%-46.98%100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.52%0.32%0.27%0.10%1.81%0.15%0.77%0.52%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,523.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)307.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,215.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)504.67315.42189.25
Cash Retained (M)2,215.532,215.532,215.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-504.67-315.42-189.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,710.861,900.112,026.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,194.481,194.481,194.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.431.591.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.431.591.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$91.76$208.76$420.13
Upside / Downside198.23%578.47%1,265.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,523.352,687.362,862.043,048.083,246.203,457.203,560.92
Payout Ratio12.20%27.76%43.32%58.88%74.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)307.81745.981,239.811,794.692,416.463,111.483,293.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)687.79694.31700.83
Year 2 PV (M)1,053.921,073.991,094.25
Year 3 PV (M)1,406.581,446.961,488.10
Year 4 PV (M)1,746.141,813.291,882.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,072.962,173.092,277.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,391.7451,777.3854,254.32
Equity Value (M)56,359.1358,979.0261,696.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,194.481,194.481,194.48
Fair Value$47.18$49.38$51.65
Upside / Downside53.34%60.47%67.86%

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