Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Andon Health Co., Ltd. (002432.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.54 - $411.10$197.83
Multi-Stage$76.17 - $83.33$79.69
Blended Fair Value$138.76
Current Price$38.79
Upside257.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS85.48%48.44%0.442.740.740.080.020.020.010.030.010.02
YoY Growth---83.93%268.50%778.04%449.54%-23.15%37.71%-42.44%143.36%-53.88%165.96%
Dividend Yield--1.05%6.28%1.68%0.11%0.19%0.22%0.19%0.28%0.07%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,889.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,735.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)377.83236.14141.69
Cash Retained (M)1,735.661,735.661,735.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-377.83-236.14-141.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,357.831,499.521,593.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.91432.91432.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.143.463.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.143.463.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.04
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.54$197.83$411.10
Upside / Downside210.75%410.01%959.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,889.152,011.952,142.722,282.002,430.332,588.302,665.95
Payout Ratio8.12%24.50%40.87%57.25%73.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.49492.92875.841,306.441,789.332,329.472,466.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)449.81454.07458.34
Year 2 PV (M)729.33743.22757.24
Year 3 PV (M)992.761,021.251,050.29
Year 4 PV (M)1,240.781,288.491,337.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,474.051,545.241,619.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,087.9829,444.6430,853.22
Equity Value (M)32,974.7034,496.9236,075.83
Shares Outstanding (M)432.91432.91432.91
Fair Value$76.17$79.69$83.33
Upside / Downside96.37%105.43%114.83%

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