DDM Analysis: 002420.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.17 - $1.75	$1.45
Multi-Stage	$9.15 - $10.17	$9.65
Blended Fair Value	$5.55
Current Price	$8.66
Upside	-35.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.41%	-0.51%	0.06	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.08	0.11	0.08	0.10	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-19.67%	159.34%	-42.65%	-4.13%	-37.31%	-24.98%	36.68%	-19.37%	32.16%	21.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.92%	1.53%	0.42%	0.81%	1.18%	2.34%	2.61%	1.75%	1.14%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	61.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	50.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.23	7.64	4.59
Cash Retained (M)	50.82	50.82	50.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.23	-7.64	-4.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	38.59	43.18	46.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	403.85	403.85	403.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	2.32%	2.32%	2.32%
Growth Rate	-7.26%	-6.26%	-5.26%
Fair Value	$1.17	$1.45	$1.75
Upside / Downside	-86.45%	-83.28%	-79.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	61.14	57.32	53.73	50.37	47.22	44.27	45.59
Payout Ratio	16.88%	31.51%	46.13%	60.75%	75.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.32	18.06	24.79	30.60	35.59	39.84	42.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	2.32%	2.32%	2.32%
Growth Rate	-7.26%	-6.26%	-5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.46	17.65	17.84
Year 2 PV (M)	23.17	23.67	24.18
Year 3 PV (M)	27.66	28.57	29.49
Year 4 PV (M)	31.11	32.47	33.88
Year 5 PV (M)	33.67	35.52	37.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,564.09	3,760.42	3,965.31
Equity Value (M)	3,697.16	3,898.30	4,108.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	403.85	403.85	403.85
Fair Value	$9.15	$9.65	$10.17
Upside / Downside	5.71%	11.46%	17.46%

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Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.,Ltd (002420.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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