DDM Analysis: 002406.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.02 - $1.42	$1.22
Multi-Stage	$1.57 - $1.73	$1.65
Blended Fair Value	$1.44
Current Price	$7.76
Upside	-81.47%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.08%	-1.41%	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.22	0.19	0.04	0.25	0.12	0.08	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	7.43%	22.74%	-64.51%	11.25%	400.02%	-84.38%	113.33%	50.00%	0.00%	-33.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.32%	1.46%	1.31%	3.95%	3.08%	0.72%	3.63%	1.70%	0.81%	0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	127.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	127.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.49	15.93	9.56
Cash Retained (M)	127.46	127.46	127.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.49	-15.93	-9.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	101.97	111.53	117.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	720.09	720.09	720.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.15	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.15	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-3.41%	-2.41%	-1.41%
Fair Value	$1.02	$1.22	$1.42
Upside / Downside	-86.79%	-84.22%	-81.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	127.47	124.40	121.40	118.48	115.62	112.84	116.22
Payout Ratio	0.01%	18.01%	36.01%	54.00%	72.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.01	22.40	43.71	63.98	83.25	101.55	107.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-3.41%	-2.41%	-1.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	20.17	20.38	20.59
Year 2 PV (M)	35.43	36.17	36.91
Year 3 PV (M)	46.69	48.15	49.65
Year 4 PV (M)	54.69	56.99	59.36
Year 5 PV (M)	60.06	63.23	66.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	916.35	964.78	1,015.24
Equity Value (M)	1,133.39	1,189.70	1,248.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	720.09	720.09	720.09
Fair Value	$1.57	$1.65	$1.73
Upside / Downside	-79.72%	-78.71%	-77.66%

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Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd (002406.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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