Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Advertising Group Co.,Ltd (002400.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.24 - $12.06$11.30
Multi-Stage$3.59 - $3.93$3.75
Blended Fair Value$7.53
Current Price$8.50
Upside-11.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.58%2.92%0.050.060.020.020.030.030.040.070.080.06
YoY Growth---23.34%224.80%-8.49%-40.25%10.85%-29.58%-42.51%-9.72%49.63%61.52%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.96%0.31%0.39%0.69%1.07%1.03%1.57%0.78%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.1613.227.93
Cash Retained (M)28.5728.5728.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.16-13.22-7.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.4115.3420.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,744.361,744.361,744.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.24$11.30$12.06
Upside / Downside20.45%32.99%41.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.80112.68120.00127.80136.11144.95149.30
Payout Ratio73.00%76.40%79.80%83.20%86.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.2386.0895.76106.33117.87130.46138.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.3782.1482.91
Year 2 PV (M)85.5787.2088.84
Year 3 PV (M)89.8192.3995.02
Year 4 PV (M)94.1197.73101.45
Year 5 PV (M)98.46103.22108.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,805.886,086.306,377.46
Equity Value (M)6,255.206,548.986,853.84
Shares Outstanding (M)1,744.361,744.361,744.36
Fair Value$3.59$3.75$3.93
Upside / Downside-57.81%-55.83%-53.77%

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