Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Mendale Hometextile Co.,Ltd (002397.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.12 - $0.16$0.14
Multi-Stage$0.28 - $0.31$0.29
Blended Fair Value$0.22
Current Price$3.61
Upside-93.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-34.78%-13.75%0.020.020.040.090.200.170.090.080.080.08
YoY Growth--10.55%-52.94%-58.86%-53.01%17.27%96.91%8.08%1.14%3.91%-13.68%
Dividend Yield--0.52%0.62%0.88%2.62%5.17%4.04%1.68%1.31%1.07%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.163.852.31
Cash Retained (M)23.2923.2923.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.16-3.85-2.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1419.4520.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)853.91853.91853.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate-12.26%-11.26%-10.26%
Fair Value$0.12$0.14$0.16
Upside / Downside-96.61%-96.06%-95.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.7927.3224.2521.5219.0916.9417.45
Payout Ratio24.35%37.48%50.61%63.74%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.5010.2412.2713.7114.6815.2516.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate-12.26%-11.26%-10.26%
Year 1 PV (M)9.349.449.55
Year 2 PV (M)10.2010.4410.68
Year 3 PV (M)10.4010.7611.13
Year 4 PV (M)10.1510.6211.11
Year 5 PV (M)9.6210.1810.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)187.78198.73210.18
Equity Value (M)237.49250.17263.41
Shares Outstanding (M)853.91853.91853.91
Fair Value$0.28$0.29$0.31
Upside / Downside-92.30%-91.88%-91.46%

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