Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. (002357.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.14 - $7.78$6.39
Multi-Stage$12.20 - $13.45$12.81
Blended Fair Value$9.60
Current Price$10.20
Upside-5.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.48%-14.04%0.120.070.190.090.070.180.190.260.310.37
YoY Growth--76.42%-63.82%126.12%24.66%-62.33%-6.38%-26.09%-14.16%-17.72%-33.50%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.13%3.20%1.53%1.48%3.04%2.88%2.60%2.46%2.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.6023.5014.10
Cash Retained (M)140.82140.82140.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.60-23.50-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.22117.32126.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)313.49313.49313.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Fair Value$5.14$6.39$7.78
Upside / Downside-49.58%-37.39%-23.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.99184.83181.72178.66175.66172.70177.89
Payout Ratio25.09%38.07%51.05%64.04%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.1770.3792.77114.41135.29155.43164.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)65.4666.1466.81
Year 2 PV (M)80.3081.9583.63
Year 3 PV (M)92.1294.9997.92
Year 4 PV (M)101.34105.57109.93
Year 5 PV (M)108.32114.00119.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,375.923,552.973,737.37
Equity Value (M)3,823.464,015.624,215.58
Shares Outstanding (M)313.49313.49313.49
Fair Value$12.20$12.81$13.45
Upside / Downside19.57%25.58%31.84%

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