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Definitive Analysis

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Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (002349.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.43 - $12.31$7.89
Multi-Stage$6.98 - $7.66$7.32
Blended Fair Value$7.60
Current Price$7.15
Upside6.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.37%18.22%0.090.080.070.050.020.070.070.080.040.04
YoY Growth--14.49%22.20%21.34%123.02%-67.29%6.33%-17.01%124.34%4.77%107.57%
Dividend Yield--1.28%1.00%0.62%0.24%0.55%1.32%1.01%1.09%0.31%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9628.1016.86
Cash Retained (M)118.99118.99118.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.96-28.10-16.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.0390.89102.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.28814.28814.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate2.37%3.37%4.37%
Fair Value$5.43$7.89$12.31
Upside / Downside-24.08%10.34%72.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.79232.36240.19248.28256.64265.28273.24
Payout Ratio47.07%55.65%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.80129.31154.29180.81208.94238.75252.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate2.37%3.37%4.37%
Year 1 PV (M)120.21121.38122.56
Year 2 PV (M)133.33135.95138.59
Year 3 PV (M)145.25149.54153.93
Year 4 PV (M)156.02162.21168.58
Year 5 PV (M)165.74173.99182.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,966.345,213.705,470.82
Equity Value (M)5,686.895,956.786,237.05
Shares Outstanding (M)814.28814.28814.28
Fair Value$6.98$7.32$7.66
Upside / Downside-2.32%2.31%7.13%

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