Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Xinpeng Industry Co.,Ltd. (002328.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.95 - $38.65$36.22
Multi-Stage$5.71 - $6.24$5.97
Blended Fair Value$21.09
Current Price$6.41
Upside229.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.74%28.13%0.170.130.130.130.130.070.030.030.030.04
YoY Growth--33.78%0.00%0.23%1.08%97.32%148.89%0.00%0.00%-25.32%140.00%
Dividend Yield--2.91%2.48%2.10%2.58%2.89%1.27%0.57%0.68%0.44%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)149.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.8518.6611.19
Cash Retained (M)25.5325.5325.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.85-18.66-11.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.326.8714.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)768.02768.02768.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.95$36.22$38.65
Upside / Downside133.29%465.01%502.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)149.25158.95169.28180.28192.00204.48210.61
Payout Ratio82.89%84.32%85.74%87.16%88.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.72134.02145.13157.13170.07184.03194.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.54125.72126.90
Year 2 PV (M)125.34127.73130.14
Year 3 PV (M)126.10129.72133.41
Year 4 PV (M)126.84131.72136.74
Year 5 PV (M)127.55133.71140.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,754.113,935.444,123.70
Equity Value (M)4,384.494,584.044,791.00
Shares Outstanding (M)768.02768.02768.02
Fair Value$5.71$5.97$6.24
Upside / Downside-10.94%-6.89%-2.68%

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