Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aotecar New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (002239.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.42 - $7.56$7.09
Multi-Stage$5.16 - $5.66$5.41
Blended Fair Value$6.25
Current Price$3.28
Upside90.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.76%31.81%0.030.010.020.010.000.010.010.020.020.00
YoY Growth--116.20%-24.56%76.70%164.45%-57.06%-37.92%-30.00%24.41%402.65%77.94%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.40%0.64%0.35%0.10%0.23%0.53%0.56%0.34%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.2915.809.48
Cash Retained (M)92.6392.6392.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.29-15.80-9.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.3576.8383.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,324.943,324.943,324.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.04
WACC / Discount Rate-1.11%-1.11%-1.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.42$7.09$7.56
Upside / Downside95.70%116.07%130.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.44134.65143.41152.73162.65173.23178.42
Payout Ratio26.73%39.39%52.04%64.69%77.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8053.0474.6398.80125.81155.90165.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.11%-1.11%-1.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53.1353.6354.14
Year 2 PV (M)74.8976.3277.76
Year 3 PV (M)99.33102.18105.08
Year 4 PV (M)126.69131.57136.58
Year 5 PV (M)157.28164.87172.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,649.5317,453.7118,288.67
Equity Value (M)17,160.8517,982.2818,834.98
Shares Outstanding (M)3,324.943,324.943,324.94
Fair Value$5.16$5.41$5.66
Upside / Downside57.36%64.89%72.71%

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