DDM Analysis: 002237.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.52 - $14.14	$10.21
Multi-Stage	$10.39 - $11.38	$10.88
Blended Fair Value	$10.54
Current Price	$14.97
Upside	-29.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.82%	1.61%	0.35	0.21	0.29	0.33	0.26	0.29	0.37	0.30	0.20	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	65.52%	-28.25%	-12.78%	26.44%	-7.91%	-22.44%	25.08%	44.99%	-30.77%	-0.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.05%	1.79%	2.48%	3.11%	2.25%	2.25%	3.73%	2.84%	1.81%	2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	633.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	389.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	244.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	126.75	79.22	47.53
Cash Retained (M)	244.20	244.20	244.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-126.75	-79.22	-47.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	117.45	164.98	196.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,278.86	1,278.86	1,278.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.13	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.13	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.43	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	1.82%	2.82%	3.82%
Fair Value	$7.52	$10.21	$14.14
Upside / Downside	-49.75%	-31.79%	-5.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	633.76	651.62	669.99	688.87	708.29	728.25	750.10
Payout Ratio	61.47%	67.17%	72.88%	78.59%	84.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	389.56	437.73	488.30	541.37	597.04	655.43	693.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	1.82%	2.82%	3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	404.41	408.38	412.36
Year 2 PV (M)	416.80	425.03	433.34
Year 3 PV (M)	426.93	439.64	452.59
Year 4 PV (M)	435.01	452.35	470.21
Year 5 PV (M)	441.20	463.30	486.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,161.28	11,720.25	12,301.39
Equity Value (M)	13,285.64	13,908.95	14,556.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,278.86	1,278.86	1,278.86
Fair Value	$10.39	$10.88	$11.38
Upside / Downside	-30.60%	-27.35%	-23.97%

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Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. (002237.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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