Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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iFLYTEK CO.,LTD (002230.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.68 - $32.10$15.77
Multi-Stage$6.21 - $6.79$6.49
Blended Fair Value$11.13
Current Price$56.05
Upside-80.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.95%15.57%0.170.130.120.210.160.120.080.070.070.06
YoY Growth--29.99%11.25%-43.71%32.03%30.21%47.46%15.13%9.32%15.69%41.49%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.26%0.18%0.45%0.33%0.35%0.22%0.18%0.28%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)837.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)701.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.44104.6562.79
Cash Retained (M)701.39701.39701.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.44-104.65-62.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)533.96596.74638.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,353.472,353.472,353.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.68$15.77$32.10
Upside / Downside-82.73%-71.86%-42.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)837.19891.61949.561,011.291,077.021,147.021,181.44
Payout Ratio16.22%30.98%45.73%60.49%75.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135.80276.19434.26611.71810.391,032.321,092.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.93254.31256.70
Year 2 PV (M)361.31368.19375.14
Year 3 PV (M)464.24477.56491.14
Year 4 PV (M)560.99582.57604.76
Year 5 PV (M)651.84683.33716.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,318.0312,913.0013,530.74
Equity Value (M)14,608.3415,278.9615,974.49
Shares Outstanding (M)2,353.472,353.472,353.47
Fair Value$6.21$6.49$6.79
Upside / Downside-88.93%-88.42%-87.89%

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