Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002209.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.07 - $127.38$119.35
Multi-Stage$67.16 - $73.90$70.47
Blended Fair Value$94.91
Current Price$15.00
Upside532.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.17%-7.92%0.050.070.050.070.060.060.070.060.070.08
YoY Growth---30.36%27.04%-17.04%17.32%-10.95%-4.59%7.56%-14.19%-9.46%-28.29%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.72%0.51%0.85%0.87%1.00%0.77%0.67%0.40%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.2216.399.83
Cash Retained (M)117.44117.44117.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.22-16.39-9.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.22101.05107.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.46199.46199.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.510.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.510.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate2.77%3.77%4.77%
Fair Value$108.07$119.35$127.38
Upside / Downside620.44%695.65%749.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.09136.03141.15146.47151.98157.71162.44
Payout Ratio10.41%26.33%42.25%58.17%74.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6535.8259.6385.19112.59141.94150.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate2.77%3.77%4.77%
Year 1 PV (M)34.8035.1435.48
Year 2 PV (M)56.2957.3958.50
Year 3 PV (M)78.1280.4282.77
Year 4 PV (M)100.30104.26108.34
Year 5 PV (M)122.84128.94135.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,004.1013,649.2314,319.73
Equity Value (M)13,396.4414,055.3814,740.08
Shares Outstanding (M)199.46199.46199.46
Fair Value$67.16$70.47$73.90
Upside / Downside347.76%369.79%392.67%

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