Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhe Jiang Hai Liang Co., Ltd (002203.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.51 - $13.63$9.20
Multi-Stage$5.00 - $5.45$5.22
Blended Fair Value$7.21
Current Price$13.00
Upside-44.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.17%18.48%0.450.310.230.160.140.180.220.150.100.11
YoY Growth--46.59%33.52%39.56%18.44%-22.53%-19.92%49.05%51.51%-7.71%30.26%
Dividend Yield--4.78%3.17%1.96%1.56%1.57%1.98%2.41%1.73%1.09%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)749.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)391.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.8293.6356.18
Cash Retained (M)357.44357.44357.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.82-93.63-56.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.62263.80301.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,120.692,120.692,120.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.51$9.20$13.63
Upside / Downside-49.90%-29.22%4.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)749.08797.77849.63904.85963.671,026.301,057.09
Payout Ratio52.28%59.83%67.37%74.91%82.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)391.64477.28572.39677.85794.61923.67977.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)429.51433.58437.65
Year 2 PV (M)463.56472.39481.30
Year 3 PV (M)494.03508.21522.66
Year 4 PV (M)521.16541.21561.82
Year 5 PV (M)545.19571.52598.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,154.998,548.878,957.84
Equity Value (M)10,608.4311,075.7811,560.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,120.692,120.692,120.69
Fair Value$5.00$5.22$5.45
Upside / Downside-61.52%-59.83%-58.07%

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