Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Western Metal Materials Co., Ltd. (002149.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.24 - $19.30$8.77
Multi-Stage$3.53 - $3.85$3.69
Blended Fair Value$6.23
Current Price$17.44
Upside-64.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.97%4.55%0.320.300.200.240.190.180.190.080.170.20
YoY Growth--7.70%47.84%-15.27%28.79%5.90%-7.09%128.03%-50.12%-18.45%-1.64%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.91%1.19%1.89%1.55%2.61%2.01%0.91%1.14%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.8411.156.69
Cash Retained (M)12.9612.9612.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.84-11.15-6.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.881.816.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)488.15488.15488.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.24$8.77$19.30
Upside / Downside-69.94%-49.71%10.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.1994.98101.16107.73114.73122.19125.86
Payout Ratio85.47%86.38%87.28%88.19%89.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.2382.0488.2995.01102.22109.97116.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.9575.6676.37
Year 2 PV (M)73.6875.0876.50
Year 3 PV (M)72.4274.5076.62
Year 4 PV (M)71.1873.9276.74
Year 5 PV (M)69.9673.3476.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,361.031,426.771,495.02
Equity Value (M)1,723.221,799.261,878.09
Shares Outstanding (M)488.15488.15488.15
Fair Value$3.53$3.69$3.85
Upside / Downside-79.76%-78.87%-77.94%

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