Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Topband Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.57 - $87.85$82.33
Multi-Stage$58.22 - $63.90$61.01
Blended Fair Value$71.67
Current Price$15.65
Upside357.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.06%17.36%0.100.090.080.070.060.100.070.060.040.02
YoY Growth--12.67%13.58%13.36%9.93%-40.56%54.44%17.35%51.75%84.28%3.22%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.90%0.59%0.61%0.55%1.88%1.10%0.74%0.62%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)434.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.9467.4640.48
Cash Retained (M)434.86434.86434.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.94-67.46-40.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)326.92367.40394.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate-0.55%-0.55%-0.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.57$82.33$87.85
Upside / Downside376.48%426.09%461.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.68574.76612.11651.90694.28739.40761.59
Payout Ratio19.42%33.54%47.65%61.77%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.82192.76291.70402.67526.85665.46704.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.55%-0.55%-0.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)192.01193.83195.65
Year 2 PV (M)289.41294.92300.48
Year 3 PV (M)397.94409.37421.01
Year 4 PV (M)518.61538.56559.07
Year 5 PV (M)652.49684.00716.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,072.8472,409.0975,873.02
Equity Value (M)71,123.3074,529.7678,065.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
Fair Value$58.22$61.01$63.90
Upside / Downside272.00%289.82%308.32%

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