Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co., Ltd (002119.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.05 - $3.01$2.51
Multi-Stage$4.76 - $5.25$5.00
Blended Fair Value$3.76
Current Price$17.64
Upside-78.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.07%-3.20%0.080.080.100.030.100.100.130.130.060.08
YoY Growth---4.50%-20.94%288.68%-74.85%4.44%-21.85%-3.44%117.00%-22.74%-25.92%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.69%0.69%0.20%1.20%0.88%1.41%1.49%0.58%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.0412.527.51
Cash Retained (M)80.6080.6080.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.04-12.52-7.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.5768.0873.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)372.78372.78372.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-3.42%-2.42%-1.42%
Fair Value$2.05$2.51$3.01
Upside / Downside-88.39%-85.77%-82.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.1997.7795.4093.1090.8588.6691.32
Payout Ratio19.54%33.64%47.73%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.5832.8845.5357.5568.9679.7984.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-3.42%-2.42%-1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)30.5030.8131.13
Year 2 PV (M)39.1639.9740.80
Year 3 PV (M)45.9047.3448.81
Year 4 PV (M)51.0153.1555.36
Year 5 PV (M)54.7357.6260.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,554.361,636.511,722.10
Equity Value (M)1,775.651,865.411,958.83
Shares Outstanding (M)372.78372.78372.78
Fair Value$4.76$5.00$5.25
Upside / Downside-73.00%-71.63%-70.21%

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