Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. (002075.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.84 - $3.34$2.47
Multi-Stage$2.66 - $2.92$2.79
Blended Fair Value$2.63
Current Price$5.62
Upside-53.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%7.11%0.090.050.080.100.100.030.030.000.000.01
YoY Growth--78.19%-37.50%-20.00%-0.59%233.52%-0.04%3,149.18%-73.71%-73.65%-70.11%
Dividend Yield--1.54%1.10%1.91%1.75%1.11%0.33%0.29%0.01%0.02%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.6636.0421.62
Cash Retained (M)166.38166.38166.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.66-36.04-21.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.72130.34144.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,209.772,209.772,209.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$1.84$2.47$3.34
Upside / Downside-67.17%-56.09%-40.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.30295.25302.37309.66317.13324.78334.52
Payout Ratio42.29%51.83%61.37%70.92%80.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.92153.04185.58219.60255.16292.30309.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)141.43142.83144.22
Year 2 PV (M)158.50161.64164.81
Year 3 PV (M)173.34178.51183.79
Year 4 PV (M)186.13193.58201.25
Year 5 PV (M)197.05206.96217.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,028.155,280.995,543.91
Equity Value (M)5,884.596,164.516,455.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,209.772,209.772,209.77
Fair Value$2.66$2.79$2.92
Upside / Downside-52.62%-50.36%-48.02%

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