Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Welltech Automation Co.,Ltd. (002058.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.06 - $13.30$11.10
Multi-Stage$15.42 - $16.99$16.19
Blended Fair Value$13.65
Current Price$26.76
Upside-49.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.14%-11.11%0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.000.02
YoY Growth--13.87%-34.78%-60.63%225.64%-27.46%0.00%-50.00%1,102.23%-93.01%6.17%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.05%0.08%0.21%0.07%0.06%0.07%0.12%0.01%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.5120.9512.57
Cash Retained (M)166.75166.75166.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.51-20.95-12.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.24145.81154.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.23142.23142.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.031.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.031.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.06$11.10$13.30
Upside / Downside-66.13%-58.51%-50.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.56165.89164.23162.58160.96159.35164.13
Payout Ratio0.48%18.39%36.29%54.19%72.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.8130.5059.6088.11116.05143.41151.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.9128.1928.48
Year 2 PV (M)49.8950.9251.95
Year 3 PV (M)67.4969.5771.70
Year 4 PV (M)81.3284.6988.17
Year 5 PV (M)91.9696.74101.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,875.111,972.762,074.42
Equity Value (M)2,193.682,302.882,416.45
Shares Outstanding (M)142.23142.23142.23
Fair Value$15.42$16.19$16.99
Upside / Downside-42.36%-39.49%-36.51%

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