Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Coship Electronics Co., Ltd. (002052.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.86 - $2.49$2.18
Multi-Stage$3.28 - $3.62$3.45
Blended Fair Value$2.81
Current Price$15.54
Upside-81.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-76.45%-56.32%0.000.000.010.000.000.030.030.030.040.06
YoY Growth--11.60%-99.65%55.19%32.71%-90.87%0.51%29.06%-37.38%-34.41%-34.54%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.31%0.24%0.21%1.36%0.69%0.56%0.49%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)315.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.1639.4723.68
Cash Retained (M)315.78315.78315.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.16-39.47-23.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.62276.30292.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)752.63752.63752.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate-7.18%-6.18%-5.18%
Fair Value$1.86$2.18$2.49
Upside / Downside-88.04%-85.94%-83.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.79296.26277.94260.75244.62229.49236.38
Payout Ratio0.01%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0253.34100.07140.81176.13206.54218.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate-7.18%-6.18%-5.18%
Year 1 PV (M)48.1648.6849.20
Year 2 PV (M)81.5683.3385.12
Year 3 PV (M)103.62107.00110.46
Year 4 PV (M)117.01122.14127.43
Year 5 PV (M)123.88130.70137.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,991.822,101.462,215.87
Equity Value (M)2,466.052,593.302,725.89
Shares Outstanding (M)752.63752.63752.63
Fair Value$3.28$3.45$3.62
Upside / Downside-78.92%-77.83%-76.69%

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