Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nanjing Port Co., Ltd. (002040.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.05 - $9.16$6.76
Multi-Stage$4.63 - $5.07$4.84
Blended Fair Value$5.80
Current Price$10.10
Upside-42.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.66%13.06%0.140.110.100.110.140.160.300.370.070.05
YoY Growth--31.50%0.69%-7.48%-16.75%-14.32%-47.22%-18.53%442.76%37.60%21.60%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.67%1.53%1.72%2.14%2.57%3.24%4.23%0.37%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9021.1912.71
Cash Retained (M)151.62151.62151.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.90-21.19-12.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.71130.43138.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)489.40489.40489.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Fair Value$5.05$6.76$9.16
Upside / Downside-50.02%-33.07%-9.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.52177.91186.73195.98205.68215.87222.35
Payout Ratio10.56%26.45%42.34%58.22%74.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.9047.0579.05114.10152.44194.29205.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Year 1 PV (M)42.5042.9143.32
Year 2 PV (M)64.4965.7467.00
Year 3 PV (M)84.0886.5389.03
Year 4 PV (M)101.46105.42109.49
Year 5 PV (M)116.79122.52128.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,856.641,947.682,042.25
Equity Value (M)2,265.962,370.792,479.55
Shares Outstanding (M)489.40489.40489.40
Fair Value$4.63$4.84$5.07
Upside / Downside-54.16%-52.04%-49.84%

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