Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Chuhuan Science & Technology Company Limited (001336.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.45 - $3.55$2.98
Multi-Stage$3.62 - $3.97$3.79
Blended Fair Value$3.39
Current Price$23.13
Upside-85.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS281.18%0.00%0.160.130.010.010.100.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--18.02%1,128.75%7.18%-90.27%53,110.65%60.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.63%0.04%0.03%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.283.301.98
Cash Retained (M)22.1422.1422.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.28-3.30-1.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.8518.8320.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.9078.9078.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-1.27%-0.27%0.73%
Fair Value$2.45$2.98$3.55
Upside / Downside-89.41%-87.11%-84.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.4226.3526.2826.2126.1426.0726.85
Payout Ratio16.21%30.96%45.72%60.48%75.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.288.1612.0115.8519.6723.4624.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-1.27%-0.27%0.73%
Year 1 PV (M)7.377.457.52
Year 2 PV (M)9.8110.0110.22
Year 3 PV (M)11.7012.0612.43
Year 4 PV (M)13.1213.6614.22
Year 5 PV (M)14.1514.8815.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)229.38241.23253.57
Equity Value (M)285.55299.31313.61
Shares Outstanding (M)78.9078.9078.90
Fair Value$3.62$3.79$3.97
Upside / Downside-84.35%-83.60%-82.82%

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