Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Winstech Precision Holding Co., Ltd. (001319.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.25 - $29.65$20.97
Multi-Stage$22.67 - $24.89$23.76
Blended Fair Value$22.36
Current Price$26.80
Upside-16.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS18.15%0.00%0.380.240.350.330.240.170.800.000.000.00
YoY Growth--58.45%-31.02%6.25%37.66%44.01%-79.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.43%1.19%1.61%1.54%1.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8510.11
Cash Retained (M)78.0078.0078.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.85-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.0361.1467.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.42141.42141.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate1.52%2.52%3.52%
Fair Value$15.25$20.97$29.65
Upside / Downside-43.12%-21.77%10.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.83138.23141.71145.28148.93152.68157.26
Payout Ratio42.15%51.72%61.29%70.86%80.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.8471.4986.85102.94119.79137.41145.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate1.52%2.52%3.52%
Year 1 PV (M)66.4267.0767.72
Year 2 PV (M)74.9576.4477.94
Year 3 PV (M)82.5384.9987.50
Year 4 PV (M)89.2192.7896.45
Year 5 PV (M)95.0799.84104.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,798.152,938.703,084.86
Equity Value (M)3,206.323,359.823,519.27
Shares Outstanding (M)141.42141.42141.42
Fair Value$22.67$23.76$24.89
Upside / Downside-15.40%-11.35%-7.14%

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