Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology Co., Ltd. (001301.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$272.85 - $743.95$697.19
Multi-Stage$103.91 - $113.76$108.74
Blended Fair Value$402.97
Current Price$83.71
Upside381.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS72.13%0.00%0.931.100.230.030.000.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---15.09%379.21%656.13%7,006.96%-99.31%112,107.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.66%3.37%0.33%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)971.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)255.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)716.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.34121.4672.88
Cash Retained (M)716.59716.59716.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.34-121.46-72.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)522.25595.13643.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.76259.76259.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.012.292.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.012.292.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.993.273.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$272.85$697.19$743.95
Upside / Downside225.95%732.86%788.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)971.691,034.851,102.111,173.751,250.041,331.301,371.24
Payout Ratio26.25%39.00%51.75%64.50%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)255.10403.62570.37757.09965.671,198.171,268.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)374.87378.43381.98
Year 2 PV (M)492.02501.39510.85
Year 3 PV (M)606.57623.99641.73
Year 4 PV (M)718.59746.22774.65
Year 5 PV (M)828.10868.10909.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,970.7225,128.5126,330.62
Equity Value (M)26,990.8728,246.6329,549.45
Shares Outstanding (M)259.76259.76259.76
Fair Value$103.91$108.74$113.76
Upside / Downside24.13%29.90%35.90%

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