Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Guangdong Yangshan United Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (001268.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.37 - $150.26$140.82
Multi-Stage$22.29 - $24.38$23.32
Blended Fair Value$82.07
Current Price$33.01
Upside148.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS51.40%0.00%0.280.140.340.360.340.030.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth--96.66%-58.68%-5.28%6.77%867.94%-4.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.70%1.36%1.29%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.1610.106.06
Cash Retained (M)28.6128.6128.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.16-10.10-6.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.4518.5122.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.92106.92106.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.37$140.82$150.26
Upside / Downside85.92%326.60%355.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.7986.0491.6397.58103.93110.68114.00
Payout Ratio64.59%69.67%74.75%79.84%84.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.1859.9468.5077.9188.2599.61105.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.7456.2656.79
Year 2 PV (M)59.2260.3561.48
Year 3 PV (M)62.6364.4266.26
Year 4 PV (M)65.9668.5071.11
Year 5 PV (M)69.2372.5776.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,070.812,170.832,274.68
Equity Value (M)2,383.592,492.942,606.37
Shares Outstanding (M)106.92106.92106.92
Fair Value$22.29$23.32$24.38
Upside / Downside-32.46%-29.37%-26.15%

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