Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiiangsu Times Textile Technology Co.,LTD (001234.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.57 - $3.70$3.12
Multi-Stage$3.99 - $4.39$4.19
Blended Fair Value$3.66
Current Price$26.85
Upside-86.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.46%0.00%0.710.500.500.010.020.810.560.450.000.00
YoY Growth--42.36%-0.02%8,462.42%-74.68%-97.14%43.90%24.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.97%2.69%2.15%0.02%0.10%3.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.984.992.99
Cash Retained (M)37.3537.3537.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.98-4.99-2.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.3732.3634.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.19108.19108.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.57$3.12$3.70
Upside / Downside-90.41%-88.37%-86.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.9039.5039.1138.7238.3337.9539.08
Payout Ratio6.39%23.11%39.83%56.56%73.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.559.1315.5821.9028.0934.1536.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8.278.368.44
Year 2 PV (M)12.7913.0613.32
Year 3 PV (M)16.3016.8017.32
Year 4 PV (M)18.9519.7320.54
Year 5 PV (M)20.8821.9623.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)354.70373.17392.40
Equity Value (M)431.89453.08475.11
Shares Outstanding (M)108.19108.19108.19
Fair Value$3.99$4.19$4.39
Upside / Downside-85.13%-84.40%-83.64%

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