Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Norsyn Crop Technology Co., Ltd. (001231.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.06 - $9.24$7.55
Multi-Stage$7.29 - $8.00$7.64
Blended Fair Value$7.59
Current Price$20.84
Upside-63.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS18.42%0.00%0.170.200.020.160.090.070.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth---19.34%1,057.18%-89.06%74.20%30.94%70.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.21%0.08%0.63%0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.928.074.84
Cash Retained (M)62.2262.2262.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.92-8.07-4.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.3054.1557.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.6097.6097.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$6.06$7.55$9.24
Upside / Downside-70.91%-63.77%-55.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.6065.9967.4268.8870.3671.8974.04
Payout Ratio3.67%20.94%38.20%55.47%72.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.3713.8225.7638.2151.1864.7068.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)12.4412.5612.69
Year 2 PV (M)20.8721.2921.71
Year 3 PV (M)27.8728.7129.56
Year 4 PV (M)33.6134.9636.35
Year 5 PV (M)38.2540.1842.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)578.73607.91638.25
Equity Value (M)711.78745.60780.73
Shares Outstanding (M)97.6097.6097.60
Fair Value$7.29$7.64$8.00
Upside / Downside-65.01%-63.34%-61.62%

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