Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. (001203.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.80 - $9.90$7.58
Multi-Stage$6.73 - $7.35$7.03
Blended Fair Value$7.31
Current Price$12.69
Upside-42.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720132012
DPS-9.67%3.12%0.220.380.090.520.160.370.230.280.290.16
YoY Growth---42.62%334.58%-83.12%222.41%-55.70%59.12%-16.19%-4.88%85.35%-3.81%
Dividend Yield--2.57%3.90%0.74%3.99%1.26%2.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)680.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)498.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)181.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.0685.0451.02
Cash Retained (M)181.85181.85181.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.06-85.04-51.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.7996.81130.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,488.091,488.091,488.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate2.76%3.76%4.76%
Fair Value$5.80$7.58$9.90
Upside / Downside-54.26%-40.26%-21.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)680.30705.88732.41759.95788.52818.16842.71
Payout Ratio73.27%76.62%79.96%83.31%86.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)498.45540.81585.65633.10683.28736.35779.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate2.76%3.76%4.76%
Year 1 PV (M)490.32495.09499.87
Year 2 PV (M)481.40490.82500.33
Year 3 PV (M)471.82485.73499.91
Year 4 PV (M)461.68479.92498.69
Year 5 PV (M)451.09473.47496.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,659.678,039.708,434.66
Equity Value (M)10,015.9910,464.7210,930.17
Shares Outstanding (M)1,488.091,488.091,488.09
Fair Value$6.73$7.03$7.35
Upside / Downside-46.96%-44.58%-42.12%

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