Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huagong Tech Company Limited (000988.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.38 - $117.97$63.54
Multi-Stage$26.68 - $29.17$27.91
Blended Fair Value$45.73
Current Price$92.48
Upside-50.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.81%16.02%0.230.190.150.090.090.050.070.080.070.07
YoY Growth--18.30%27.76%61.95%7.03%76.32%-27.05%-13.96%12.85%2.00%32.35%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.52%0.59%0.46%0.42%0.25%0.42%0.51%0.47%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,604.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,342.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.89200.56120.33
Cash Retained (M)1,342.681,342.681,342.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.89-200.56-120.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,021.791,142.121,222.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,000.541,000.541,000.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.141.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.141.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.38$63.54$117.97
Upside / Downside-56.34%-31.29%27.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,604.461,708.751,819.821,938.102,064.082,198.252,264.19
Payout Ratio16.32%31.05%45.79%60.53%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.78530.61833.281,173.061,553.491,978.422,094.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)482.88487.46492.04
Year 2 PV (M)690.13703.27716.54
Year 3 PV (M)884.15909.53935.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,065.571,106.551,148.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,234.981,294.631,356.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,341.7923,420.9124,541.33
Equity Value (M)26,699.4927,922.3429,190.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,000.541,000.541,000.54
Fair Value$26.68$27.91$29.17
Upside / Downside-71.15%-69.82%-68.45%

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