Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.,Ltd. (000983.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.68 - $58.80$33.47
Multi-Stage$9.15 - $10.03$9.58
Blended Fair Value$21.52
Current Price$6.95
Upside209.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.51%17.82%0.851.290.700.070.190.330.200.180.170.19
YoY Growth---34.05%83.65%870.59%-62.62%-42.17%67.50%12.94%1.99%-9.19%15.76%
Dividend Yield--12.35%12.72%6.37%0.58%3.85%8.95%4.03%2.93%2.33%3.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,696.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)753.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)942.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)339.20212.00127.20
Cash Retained (M)942.25942.25942.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-339.20-212.00-127.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)603.05730.25815.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,676.625,676.625,676.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Fair Value$13.68$33.47$58.80
Upside / Downside96.90%381.55%746.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,696.001,787.321,883.561,984.982,091.852,204.492,270.62
Payout Ratio44.44%53.55%62.67%71.78%80.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)753.75957.191,180.351,424.761,692.071,984.042,100.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Year 1 PV (M)892.69901.24909.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,026.641,046.401,066.35
Year 3 PV (M)1,155.721,189.261,223.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,280.071,329.831,381.03
Year 5 PV (M)1,399.811,468.161,539.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,199.0948,454.8350,797.84
Equity Value (M)51,954.0354,389.7356,917.60
Shares Outstanding (M)5,676.625,676.625,676.62
Fair Value$9.15$9.58$10.03
Upside / Downside31.69%37.86%44.27%

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