Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FSPG Hi-Tech Co. Ltd. (000973.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.96 - $22.38$20.96
Multi-Stage$25.90 - $28.69$27.27
Blended Fair Value$24.11
Current Price$7.82
Upside208.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.66%11.38%0.090.040.040.030.030.060.030.050.050.12
YoY Growth--104.92%13.16%26.67%0.00%-48.42%93.88%-40.00%0.00%-57.94%296.28%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.01%0.78%0.58%0.74%1.31%0.59%0.94%0.59%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0715.049.02
Cash Retained (M)70.1470.1470.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.07-15.04-9.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0855.1061.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)974.41974.41974.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate-17.56%-17.56%-17.56%
Growth Rate-4.02%-3.02%-2.02%
Fair Value$18.96$20.96$22.38
Upside / Downside142.51%168.01%186.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.33116.70113.18109.76106.45103.24106.34
Payout Ratio41.71%51.37%61.02%70.68%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1959.9469.0777.5885.5292.9298.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-17.56%-17.56%-17.56%
Growth Rate-4.02%-3.02%-2.02%
Year 1 PV (M)71.9672.7173.46
Year 2 PV (M)99.54101.62103.73
Year 3 PV (M)134.23138.47142.80
Year 4 PV (M)177.64185.16192.91
Year 5 PV (M)231.68244.01256.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,526.3325,830.8727,190.33
Equity Value (M)25,241.3826,572.8327,960.08
Shares Outstanding (M)974.41974.41974.41
Fair Value$25.90$27.27$28.69
Upside / Downside231.26%248.73%266.93%

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