Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Advanced Technology & Materials Co., Ltd. (000969.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.99 - $9.74$6.87
Multi-Stage$4.73 - $5.15$4.94
Blended Fair Value$5.90
Current Price$13.56
Upside-56.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.14%19.64%0.100.120.000.020.020.100.030.100.100.10
YoY Growth---17.60%12,397.80%-95.10%0.00%-80.06%234.38%-71.31%2.87%-1.85%515.85%
Dividend Yield--0.78%1.36%0.01%0.25%0.29%1.63%0.42%1.28%1.01%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)313.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.7939.2423.55
Cash Retained (M)90.2390.2390.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.79-39.24-23.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4450.9966.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,038.641,038.641,038.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate4.19%5.19%6.19%
Fair Value$4.99$6.87$9.74
Upside / Downside-63.20%-49.33%-28.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)313.95330.23347.36365.37384.31404.24416.37
Payout Ratio71.26%75.01%78.76%82.50%86.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.72247.70273.56301.44331.48363.82385.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate4.19%5.19%6.19%
Year 1 PV (M)224.61226.76228.92
Year 2 PV (M)224.93229.27233.65
Year 3 PV (M)224.74231.27237.93
Year 4 PV (M)224.09232.82241.80
Year 5 PV (M)223.02233.93245.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,787.003,972.264,164.71
Equity Value (M)4,908.385,126.325,352.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,038.641,038.641,038.64
Fair Value$4.73$4.94$5.15
Upside / Downside-65.15%-63.60%-62.00%

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