DDM Analysis: 000959.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.67 - $5.42	$3.73
Multi-Stage	$4.12 - $4.52	$4.32
Blended Fair Value	$4.03
Current Price	$4.26
Upside	-5.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-11.36%	3.56%	0.18	0.19	0.32	0.40	0.34	0.33	0.32	0.32	0.31	0.39
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.55%	-39.92%	-19.89%	16.35%	3.47%	3.18%	-0.42%	3.72%	-19.98%	204.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.40%	5.90%	8.37%	7.66%	7.42%	11.25%	7.17%	6.52%	4.35%	8.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,220.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	874.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	346.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	244.17	152.61	91.56
Cash Retained (M)	346.05	346.05	346.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-244.17	-152.61	-91.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	101.88	193.45	254.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,754.37	7,754.37	7,754.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	1.56%	2.56%	3.56%
Fair Value	$2.67	$3.73	$5.42
Upside / Downside	-37.23%	-12.35%	27.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,220.85	1,252.17	1,284.28	1,317.22	1,351.00	1,385.65	1,427.22
Payout Ratio	71.65%	75.32%	78.99%	82.66%	86.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	874.80	943.18	1,014.49	1,088.84	1,166.33	1,247.09	1,320.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	1.56%	2.56%	3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)	878.23	886.87	895.52
Year 2 PV (M)	879.57	896.98	914.55
Year 3 PV (M)	879.02	905.24	931.98
Year 4 PV (M)	876.74	911.78	947.86
Year 5 PV (M)	872.88	916.71	962.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	27,592.00	28,977.36	30,417.82
Equity Value (M)	31,978.44	33,494.94	35,070.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,754.37	7,754.37	7,754.37
Fair Value	$4.12	$4.32	$4.52
Upside / Downside	-3.19%	1.40%	6.16%

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Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd. (000959.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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