Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jinling Pharmaceutical Company Limited (000919.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.30 - $0.41$0.36
Multi-Stage$0.52 - $0.58$0.55
Blended Fair Value$0.45
Current Price$6.85
Upside-93.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.97%-3.38%0.100.080.080.080.150.140.210.140.150.15
YoY Growth--23.63%-0.02%0.99%-43.88%4.93%-32.99%43.46%-1.63%-1.27%3.28%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.19%1.06%0.96%2.38%1.96%2.56%1.70%1.13%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.504.692.81
Cash Retained (M)29.9829.9829.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.50-4.69-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.4825.2927.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)621.53621.53621.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-5.38%-4.38%-3.38%
Fair Value$0.30$0.36$0.41
Upside / Downside-95.59%-94.77%-93.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.5035.8634.2832.7831.3529.9730.87
Payout Ratio20.06%34.05%48.04%62.02%76.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.5212.2116.4720.3323.8326.9728.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-5.38%-4.38%-3.38%
Year 1 PV (M)11.0111.1311.24
Year 2 PV (M)13.4013.6813.97
Year 3 PV (M)14.9215.3915.88
Year 4 PV (M)15.7616.4417.14
Year 5 PV (M)16.1016.9617.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)253.62267.31281.58
Equity Value (M)324.80340.91357.68
Shares Outstanding (M)621.53621.53621.53
Fair Value$0.52$0.55$0.58
Upside / Downside-92.37%-91.99%-91.60%

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