Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Emei Shan Tourism Co.,Ltd (000888.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.10 - $4.49$3.77
Multi-Stage$4.84 - $5.33$5.08
Blended Fair Value$4.43
Current Price$13.11
Upside-66.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.62%19.36%0.230.040.060.080.100.100.100.080.100.09
YoY Growth--482.63%-32.82%-24.03%-21.02%0.00%0.00%25.00%-20.00%11.11%125.00%
Dividend Yield--1.69%0.39%0.66%1.01%1.53%1.63%1.29%0.82%0.73%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9928.1216.87
Cash Retained (M)212.36212.36212.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.99-28.12-16.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.37184.24195.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.91526.91526.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-1.80%-0.80%0.20%
Fair Value$3.10$3.77$4.49
Upside / Downside-76.36%-71.22%-65.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.93223.12221.33219.55217.79216.03222.52
Payout Ratio5.59%22.47%39.35%56.24%73.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.5850.1487.10123.47159.24194.43205.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-1.80%-0.80%0.20%
Year 1 PV (M)45.5346.0046.46
Year 2 PV (M)71.8273.2974.78
Year 3 PV (M)92.4595.3098.21
Year 4 PV (M)108.27112.75117.36
Year 5 PV (M)120.04126.28132.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,112.602,222.382,336.68
Equity Value (M)2,550.712,675.992,806.27
Shares Outstanding (M)526.91526.91526.91
Fair Value$4.84$5.08$5.33
Upside / Downside-63.07%-61.26%-59.38%

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