Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SUFA Technology Industry Co., Ltd. CNNC (000777.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.28 - $28.73$18.04
Multi-Stage$8.54 - $9.34$8.93
Blended Fair Value$13.49
Current Price$19.16
Upside-29.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.92%14.92%0.220.120.090.080.110.090.040.080.060.05
YoY Growth--83.97%28.38%14.31%-22.73%18.89%125.00%-50.00%33.33%20.00%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%0.74%0.81%0.69%0.90%0.80%0.25%0.58%0.25%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)225.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.0428.1516.89
Cash Retained (M)212.05212.05212.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.04-28.15-16.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.01183.90195.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.88383.88383.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.28$18.04$28.73
Upside / Downside-35.89%-5.85%49.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)225.19239.83255.42272.02289.70308.53317.79
Payout Ratio5.83%22.67%39.50%56.33%73.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1454.36100.89153.24211.96277.68293.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.1749.6350.10
Year 2 PV (M)82.5384.1085.68
Year 3 PV (M)113.36116.62119.93
Year 4 PV (M)141.82147.27152.88
Year 5 PV (M)168.03176.14184.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,723.802,855.362,991.95
Equity Value (M)3,278.703,429.133,585.13
Shares Outstanding (M)383.88383.88383.88
Fair Value$8.54$8.93$9.34
Upside / Downside-55.42%-53.38%-51.26%

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