Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd. (000768.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.24 - $4.84$4.00
Multi-Stage$4.43 - $4.85$4.64
Blended Fair Value$4.32
Current Price$26.87
Upside-83.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.86%2.19%0.110.120.160.140.210.160.120.080.130.16
YoY Growth---0.80%-26.10%9.15%-32.10%28.99%40.42%49.39%-42.20%-14.29%70.51%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.53%0.61%0.50%0.87%1.03%0.67%0.45%0.55%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,072.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)713.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)214.41134.0180.40
Cash Retained (M)713.50713.50713.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-214.41-134.01-80.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)499.09579.50633.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,769.642,769.642,769.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$3.24$4.00$4.84
Upside / Downside-87.93%-85.11%-82.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,072.051,084.811,097.721,110.791,124.011,137.381,171.51
Payout Ratio33.44%44.76%56.07%67.38%78.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.55485.52615.46748.42884.471,023.651,083.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)437.98442.36446.73
Year 2 PV (M)500.85510.90521.05
Year 3 PV (M)549.43566.05583.00
Year 4 PV (M)585.74609.47633.93
Year 5 PV (M)611.54642.67675.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,581.0510,068.8410,576.29
Equity Value (M)12,266.6012,840.2913,436.05
Shares Outstanding (M)2,769.642,769.642,769.64
Fair Value$4.43$4.64$4.85
Upside / Downside-83.52%-82.75%-81.95%

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