Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenyang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (000698.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.20 - $22.69$21.23
Multi-Stage$23.26 - $25.92$24.56
Blended Fair Value$22.90
Current Price$3.99
Upside473.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.95%-11.81%0.070.100.150.090.000.070.180.250.220.26
YoY Growth---24.39%-36.13%66.71%0.00%-100.00%-62.77%-30.58%14.91%-14.37%1.65%
Dividend Yield--2.13%2.53%3.31%1.82%0.00%1.82%3.82%4.56%2.80%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.5813.498.09
Cash Retained (M)74.2074.2074.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.58-13.49-8.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.6360.7266.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)816.74816.74816.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate-9.14%-8.14%-7.14%
Fair Value$19.20$21.23$22.69
Upside / Downside381.24%432.15%468.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.8899.0991.0283.6176.8070.5572.66
Payout Ratio31.22%42.97%54.73%66.49%78.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.6842.5849.8255.5960.0963.4967.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate-9.14%-8.14%-7.14%
Year 1 PV (M)52.1252.6953.27
Year 2 PV (M)74.6376.2877.95
Year 3 PV (M)101.93105.33108.81
Year 4 PV (M)134.86140.89147.13
Year 5 PV (M)174.40184.21194.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,461.8919,500.5020,585.33
Equity Value (M)18,999.8220,059.9021,166.94
Shares Outstanding (M)816.74816.74816.74
Fair Value$23.26$24.56$25.92
Upside / Downside483.03%515.56%549.53%

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